Last week, the Ohio River Valley Institute (ORVI) published a Report on the status of the fracking industry in Pennsylvania – Shale Gas in Pennsylvania: 2026. Sean O’Leary’s Report updates previous ORVI Research Papers: Frackalachia 2025, Frackalachia Update 2023, and Misplaced Faith 2022. The 2026 Report analyzes 2025 employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The Shale Gas Report provides an overview of wages, employment & population growth across Pennsylvania, with a focus on the 11 active shale gas industry counties.
Figure 1 – Pennsylvania’s Top 11 Shale Gas Counties
Key Findings – Shale Gas Jobs & Production
- In 2025, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor, total employment in the shale gas industry in Pennsylvania was 16,238 jobs (See Figure 2 below).
- These 16,238 jobs may be a slight overcount because they include “Oil and Gas” categories including: Oil & Gas Extraction, Drilling Oil & Gas Wells, Support Activities for Oil and Gas, Oil and Gas Pipeline and Related Structures and Pipeline Transportation of natural Gas. Employment peaked at 30,996 in 2014 (See Figure 2).
- Since 2013, the overall employment, wage, and population figures for the 11 Pennsylvania Shale Gas counties have declined with major reductions in both shale gas industry jobs and wages (See Shale Gas in PA at pages 9 – 16).
- Shale gas production in Pennsylvania increased dramatically during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, reaching its current high plateau of over 7 trillion cubic feet in 2021 (see Figure 4 below).
Total Shale Gas Jobs in Pennsylvania 2001 – 2025
Key Findings – Shale Gas Wages Are Declining & Population Decreases
- Since 2008, just two of Pennsylvania’s 11 major natural gas counties have experienced job growth as great as that of the state. In 8 of the 11 Shale Gas counties, there have been net job losses.
- Wage growth has been 20% lower in PA’s Shale Gas counties than the rest of PA.
- Shale Gas counties suffered a 2% decline in population, while Pennsylvania’s statewide population grew by 4%.
Shale Gas in Pennsylvania: 2026 summarizes the reasons why shale gas county residents are voting with their feet and leaving for better job prospects. Even though shale gas extraction has grown more efficient and profitable for the oil and gas companies, the local economies are not experiencing job, wage and population growth.
Figure 3 – Pennsylvania’s Top 11 Shale Gas Counties Are Losing Population
Increases in Shale Gas Production in the Obama, Trump and Biden Administrations
Gas production in Pennsylvania remains at historic highs – a pattern that has remained consistent through the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations. But these high gas production levels have not sustained job and wage growth in the shale gas counties.
Before hydraulic fracturing (fracking), Pennsylvania produced between 0.15 and 0.20 trillion cubic feet of natural gas annually. But with the advent of fracking, production began to skyrocket during the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations. From 2008 to 2012 production grew by 11 times to almost 2.3 trillion cubic feet. From 2012 to 2024, production more than tripled again to over 7.1 trillion cubic feet (see Figure 4 below).
Figure 4 – U.S. Energy Information Administration – PA Gas Production
As the Pennsylvania natural gas industry has deployed advanced technologies and higher efficiency in extraction, production has remained historically high. For example, natural gas production in Pennsylvania reached a high of more than 7.6 trillion cubic feet in 2025. However, that increased efficiency and productivity has decreased the demand for labor. That is why we can see these increased gas production statistics combined with the declines in jobs and wages listed in Figure 2 above.
The Bottom Line on Why Pennsylvanians Move Away from Shale Gas Counties
Pennsylvanians are moving away from the shale gas counties because of the industry’s failure to contribute to local jobs and income growth. Local shale gas county residents may read about increased Gross Domestic Product statistics, but they are not feeling the effects in their local economies. This failure is structural in nature because shale gas production growth requires the industry to achieve greater efficiency and productivity. That has resulted in less demand for labor, which has meant fewer local jobs and lower wages for the shale gas county workforce. The increased productivity of the industry may boost the state’s Gross Domestic Product (and Oil & Gas company bottom lines), but a significant portion of shale gas profits are taken out of the local economy.
Spoiler Alert: You May See Inaccurate Job Claims This Election Season
Because 2026 is an election year, in the next three months, it is very likely that every Pennsylvanian with a television, a cell phone and/or a mailbox will be inundated with campaign ads.
Campaigns from across the political spectrum continue to extoll Pennsylvania’s shale gas industry as an engine of economic prosperity. Shale gas expansion, these campaigns claim, will somehow drive down energy bills, attract new industries, help existing businesses grow, and, above all, it will create new jobs, especially in connection with new industry players like data centers.
Some campaign materials may refer to shale gas industry sponsored “studies” that make claims about fracking and job creation. How exaggerated will the job claims be? It may depend on what you’ve already listened to and when – but various campaigns have claimed the shale gas industry is responsible for anywhere from 100,000 to 400,000 jobs in Pennsylvania. That wide range of claimed job numbers represents many, many times more than the actual job numbers presented in Figure 2 above.
And “the Academy Award for Shale Gas Jobs Claims Goes to” – Disappear
One campaign ad – ubiquitous on the airwaves in Pennsylvania during the Fall of 2024 made claims of 330,640 “fracking jobs” in Pennsylvania – See Disappear. Text on screen in the ad says, “Fracking Ban – 330,640 lost jobs.” Note: the US Dept. of Labor’s Quarterly Census of Labor Statistics (Figure 2 above) listed only 16,592 shale gas jobs in 2024.
The “330,640 Lost Jobs” appears prominently on the screen. You cannot miss it. But – where did that number come from? The reference did not make it into Disappear.
So, when FactCheck.org investigated, Ad Misleads on Harris’ Fracking Position, Uses Debatable Figure for Fracking-Reliant Jobs in PA, a national party campaign committee spokesperson provided supporting documentation claiming the data came from Impacts of the Oil and Natural Gas Industry on the US Economy in 2021, an April 2023 report commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute.
What Did the Impacts Report Include in Its Estimate of 330,640 Jobs in Pennsylvania?
Disappear did not distinguish between shale gas jobs and oil industry jobs. So, in addition to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Codes listed under Figure 2 above (note that Figure 2 over-includes both “oil and gas” categories), the Impacts Report also counted numerous NAICS categories of jobs that are, on their face, totally unrelated to the shale gas industry. Those categories included:
- NAICS Code 23712. Oil and gas pipeline and related structures construction.
- NAICS Code 32411. Petroleum refineries.
- NAICS Code 32412. Asphalt paving, roofing, and saturated materials manufacturing.
- NAICS Code 324191. Petroleum lubricating oil and grease manufacturing.
- NAICS Code 4247. Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers.
- NAICS Code 44711. Gasoline stations with convenience stores. These establishments can either be in a convenience store (i.e., food mart) setting or a gasoline station setting. These establishments may also provide automotive repair services.
- NAICS Code 44719. Other gasoline stations.
- NAICS Code 45431. Fuel dealers. This subsector comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing heating oil, liquefied petroleum (LP) gas, & other fuels.
Although one does not need an advanced degree in Economics to conclude that convenience store clerks and highway construction crews should probably not be counted as shale gas workers, Disappear ran uninterrupted through Election Day in 2024.
A September 13, 2024, WHYY article by Susan Phillips also looked at shale gas job claims in campaign ads and noted “The state of Pennsylvania reported about 26,000 direct jobs in the oil and gas industry in 2020, less than 1% of all jobs in the state. Four years later, that number is even smaller.”
Conclusion
Election season is already upon us. Debates on the best economic development paths forward for Pennsylvania workers and families are already underway. In 2026, new discussions about proposed data centers and how they will secure the electricity they need have already emerged as a top concern. Shale Gas in Pennsylvania: 2026 seeks to set the record straight on the declines in jobs and wages in Pennsylvania’s active shale gas counties. The significant population decline in 9 of the 11 shale gas counties offers a cautionary tale from the Pennsylvanian families who have already lived first-hand in the “promised land” of the shale gas economy. Many have packed up and moved away.
Don’t fall for the slick ads on promised shale gas jobs and prosperity.