Since 2021, the Ohio River Valley Institute has been tracking yearly economic data from Beaver County in comparison to Pennsylvania and the rest of the country. And year after year, the numbers show that Beaver County, home to the Shell Polymers Monaca petrochemical plant, continues to lag Pennsylvania and the nation in key measures of economic well-being. In fact, since 2012, when Shell announced firm plans to build the facility in Beaver County, the county has fallen further behind by nearly every measure of economic performance – the exact opposite of what the project’s boosters were promising.
Since Shell first announced plans to construct a petrochemical complex in Beaver County, the company along with the broader fossil fuel industry and their political allies consistently misled the public with claims the plant would be an economic windfall for the local community. In 2012, the American Chemistry Council claimed the construction of an ethylene production complex in Pennsylvania would lead to at least 10,000 construction jobs, 400 direct plant jobs, and approximately 17,000 jobs in associated industries. Then-Secretary of Labor Julia Hearthway told reporters she was convinced the plant would kick-start a chemical manufacturing boom, asserting that “with it comes jobs. Not a few hundred jobs. Not one company hiring 300 or 400 jobs. But thousands and thousands of jobs to Pennsylvania.
The pitch centered around Shell’s project spurring a “petrochemical renaissance” in Appalachia, a term coined by the Trump administration’s Department of Energy in 2020, in exchange for a record-breaking corporate handout. To lure the company to the state, Pennsylvania lawmakers created the Resource Manufacturing Tax Credit, which was estimated to save Shell $1.65 billion over 25 years in raw materials. It was the biggest tax break in state history.
In reality, Beaver County has fewer jobs and businesses today than in 2012, when Shell first announced plans for the Monaca petrochemical plant.
Analysis of the latest economic data from Beaver County shows that Beaver County continues to trail neighboring counties, the rest of Pennsylvania, and the nation at large in several key economic measures, even after the facility commenced operations in 2022. In fact, there is no evidence to suggest Beaver County is any “better off” thanks to the Shell facility when compared to neighboring communities.
In reality:
- Beaver County inflation-adjusted GDP fell by more than 16% between 2012 and 2024, the most recent year for which federal data is available. During this same period, GDP continued to grow statewide and nationally.
- Beaver County’s population has declined since 2012, despite unprecedented taxpayer subsidies that were meant to bring jobs and families to the region.
- Beaver County lost business firms and establishments despite business growth nationally and statewide.
- Beaver County lost over 6,000 jobs between 2012 and 2025, more than ten times the number of jobs the Shell plant is estimated to have created.
- Employment fell in Beaver County by nearly 11.3% between 2012 and 2025, while the rest of the state and nation saw steady growth, contrary to claims made by project-backers.
- In fact, over the same period federal employment data shows Beaver County trailed neighboring counties in western PA when it came to job growth. In other words, neighboring counties that did not have petrochemical development actually saw stronger employment performance than Beaver County.
The latest findings contribute to a growing body of research by ORVI, documenting the myriad ways the Shell project has fallen short of promises the company has made since it came to the Keystone State in 2012. In January 2023, ORVI fellows Nick Messenger, Kathy Hipple, and Anne Keller debunked the 2014 Robert Morris University study used to justify billions of dollars of public subsidy. As the authors explain, the RMU study was an inadequate evaluation of the true economic prospects of Shell’s plant.
In 2024, when reports surfaced that Shell was seeking a buyer for the beleaguered petrochemical facility, ORVI research fellows Kathy Hipple and Anne Keller analyzed Shell’s tax records, revealing the funds intended to support the local petrochemical industry were instead funneled to out-of-state insurance firms and other companies unrelated to petrochemicals manufacturing.
Shell’s environmental track record has not fared any better.
Shell spokesman Ray Fischer even claimed the plant would improve air quality. “As designed, the project will actually help improve the local air shed as it relates to ozone and fine particulates,” he told the press in 2019. Just the opposite, the facility has consistently violated air pollution limits and has exceeded permitted emissions levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in every month since it began operating. The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection has issued 61 notices of clean air and water violations since 2017. Despite its violations, Shell is now seeking an updated Title V air quality permit to allow greater allowances for emissions releases and increase in flaring of methane gas.
Despite the empty promises for major job and business growth, it seems that the local Beaver County community received little in the way of economic revitalization. What the community actually got was more pollution, slower growth, fewer jobs, fewer businesses, and fewer people. It’s hard to imagine a worse deal for the taxpayers of Pennsylvania and the residents of Beaver County.