The US is on the verge of an ammonia ‘boom,’ which could expand fracking and incentivize risky carbon storage infrastructure. But as with any boom, industrial expansion will eventually bring a bust. At least 37 new projects have been proposed around the country which could increase ammonia production by over 350% within a decade. Part of this growth is related to projects proposed for the Ohio River Valley region.
Despite this anticipated growth, the industry’s future is highly uncertain. No widespread demand for the ammonia currently exists and new markets would need to be created and then adopted en masse. The technologies required for this to happen are dubious and the progress is slow. Ammonia is projected to be used for new applications such as maritime fuel and as a carrier for hydrogen, but these use cases could take many years to materialize, if they materialize at all.
In 2023, the US produced over 14 million tons of ammonia. Almost all of this was conventional, or “gray,” ammonia produced from hydrogen made from methane (usually fracked gas). The CO2 produced from this process—2.35 metric tons per ton of ammonia—is then released into the atmosphere where it acts as a greenhouse gas.
In contrast, nearly 90% of new ammonia production capacity would come from hydrogen production that utilizes carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Ammonia produced in this way is referred to as “blue ammonia”. The energy industry is promoting CCS—an expensive, risky, experimental, and relatively new process—claiming it would cut the greenhouse gas emissions of conventional ammonia production. But CCS projects have failed to meet capture targets and it remains to be seen whether ammonia can truly be produced using these methods at competitive costs.
CCS involves injecting CO2 underground in deep geologic formations for the purpose of sequestering carbon for upwards of thousands of years. Developers often claim a 95% reduction in emissions, but no commercial-scale CCS project has consistently captured more than 80% of its carbon. The track record of two older storage projects in Norway also shows a need for strong regulatory and monitoring frameworks to protect the public and environment from what has proven to be a very dynamic and unpredictable process. But US regulators and developers have little operational experience with this process. 24 carbon storage wells have been permitted since the program was established in 2010 but only a handful of these projects are actively injecting CO2.
Pipelines would also need to be constructed to transport the CO2 from the source of emissions to where it will be stored. This means more dangerous infrastructure in overburdened communities. Condensed CO2 can corrode steel pipelines, particularly if exposed to water, increasing the risks of leaks, ruptures and explosions. At high concentrations, CO2 is a toxic asphyxiant, and exposures have sickened entire communities.
CCS is a critical component of blue ammonia production but if operators fail to hit target capture rates, some or all of the 129 million metric tons of CO2 produced from these facilities—equivalent to the yearly emissions of 30 million gas-powered cars on the road—would be released into the atmosphere.
Even if these companies capture CO2 as intended, blue ammonia is hardly clean. Consider the upstream effects of this process: the extraction and transportation of fracked gas would result in a range of emissions from wells, compressor stations, pipelines, and other associated infrastructure. These facilities often leak methane gas and have a proven array of negative health impacts. A 2023 compendium of peer-reviewed studies concluded there is “no evidence that fracking can be practiced in a manner that does not threaten human health directly or without imperiling climate stability upon which human health depends.”
Adams Fork Energy, a blue ammonia project proposed by TransGas in Mingo County, West Virginia, is one of the 37 ammonia production facilities proposed across the country. It’s located on top of the Marcellus gas formation and the project backers plan to use natural gas and coal mine methane as feedstock. Developers claim it would capture 99.3% of its CO2 emissions and store them in a saline aquifer underneath the site. The West Virginia DEP issued a minor source air permit to TransGas in March 2024, but this permit does not mandate the use of CCS, meaning Adams Fork could abandon their plans to capture CO2 and instead release it into the atmosphere during production, reducing project costs and increasing net CO2 emissions.
Regardless of what happens with its CCS plans, fracking will still be an integral part of the Adams Fork Energy project, meaning it will still generate significant upstream methane emissions and would prolong the extraction of fossil fuels and all of the associated negative health impacts. While Adams Fork continues to position itself as a decarbonization solution, in reality, it is a costly and dangerous distraction from proven and more beneficial interventions that would add value to life in the Ohio River Valley.
New ammonia projects could pollute the air with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Now is the time to educate yourself and your community and bring questions and concerns to your decision-makers. Policymakers should be skeptical of the industry’s claims of how carbon-free ammonia production actually is and residents deserve to be fully informed about harmful projects proposed for their communities.